ANALISIS DAMPAK PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DAN HARGA MINYAK NABATI GLOBAL TERHADAP DEFORESTASI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) TAHUN 2016 - 2025

Lucky Lukman; Rosmegawati Rosmegawati; Rozikin Rozikin; Mohammad Jon Tasrif; Arni Kurniati

doi:10.31539/q082bq92

Authors

Lucky Lukman Universitas Borobudur Jakarta
Rosmegawati Rosmegawati Universitas Borobudur Jakarta
Rozikin Rozikin Universitas Borobudur Jakarta
Mohammad Jon Tasrif Universitas Borobudur Jakarta
Arni Kurniati Universitas Borobudur Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31539/q082bq92

Keywords:

Deforestasi, Harga CPO Global, Produksi Kelapa Sawit, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Indonesia.

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan dinamis jangka pendek dan kontribusi relatif antara produksi kelapa sawit Indonesia, harga minyak kelapa sawit (CPO) global, dan deforestasi di Indonesia selama periode 2016–2025. Metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Autoregression (VAR) untuk mengestimasi interdependensi simultan antar variabel, dilengkapi dengan uji kausalitas Granger, Impulse Response Function (IRF), dan Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) terdapat hubungan kausal jangka pendek yang signifikan dari harga CPO dan produksi sawit terhadap deforestasi, tetapi tidak sebaliknya; (2) estimasi VAR mengungkap bahwa kenaikan harga CPO periode sebelumnya meningkatkan deforestasi saat ini sebesar 45,623 hektar, sementara peningkatan produksi sawit berkontribusi sebesar 5120,4 hektar; (3) deforestasi berpengaruh positif terhadap harga CPO dan produksi, namun efeknya bersifat temporer; (4) hasil FEVD menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, sekitar 39,4% variasi deforestasi dijelaskan oleh harga CPO dan produksi, sementara deforestasi sendiri menjelaskan 28,9% variasi harga CPO dan 39,4% variasi produksi. Implikasi kebijakan dari temuan ini menekankan pentingnya pendekatan terintegrasi yang menggabungkan pengendalian harga komoditas, intensifikasi produksi berkelanjutan, dan penguatan tata kelola lahan untuk menekan deforestasi tanpa mengorbankan stabilitas ekonomi sektor sawit.

References

Agrawal, A., et al. (2024). Polycentric governance and resilience in environmental systems. World Development, 176, 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106119

Arifin, B. (2023). Rent-seeking behavior and land use changes in Indonesian palm oil expansion. Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 12(1), 89–104. https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2023.2184567

Austin, K. G., Schwantes, A., Gu, Y., & Kasibhatla, P. S. (2019). What Causes Deforestation in Indonesia? Environmental Research Letters, 14(2), 024007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf6db

Curtis, P. G., et al. (2018). Classifying drivers of global forest loss. Science. Science, 361(6407), 1108–1111. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau3445

Curtis, P.G., et al. (2023). Threshold effects in commodity price-deforestation relationships: Evidence from tropical agricultural frontiers. Environmental Research Letters, 18(4), 045012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb876

FAO. (2020). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020. Rome: FAO.

Gaveau, D.L.A., Locatelli, B., Salim, M.A., et al. (2022). Slowing deforestation in Indonesia follows declining oil palm expansion and lower oil prices. Environmental Research Letters, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6f09

Global Forest Watch. (2024). World Lost 4.1 Million Hectares of Tropical Forest in 2023. World Lost 4.1 Million Hectares of Tropical Forest in 2023. Washington, DC: WRI.

Greenbury, A. (2024). Productivity-intensification trade-offs in sustainable palm oil production. Nature Sustainability, 7, 245–258. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-024-01319-7

Heilmayr, R., et al. (2024). Spatial spillovers of commodity price shocks on deforestation patterns. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121(5), e2303481121. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2303481121

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647

Kartodihardjo, H. (2023). Institutional capacity mismatch and forest governance outcomes in Indonesia’s palm oil sector. Forest Policy and Economics, 156, 103–115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103115

Lambin, E. F. (2024). Amplification mechanisms in global commodity price transmission to local deforestation. Global Environmental Change, 85, 102–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102118

Margono, B. A., Potapov, P. V., Turubanova, S., Stolle, F., & Hansen, M. C. (2023). Decoupling of Palm Oil Expansion from Deforestation in Indonesia: Evidence from Remote Sensing and Policy Analysis. Environmental Research Letters, 18(5), 054025. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd5f2

Meyfroidt, P., et al. (2023). Telecoupled land systems: Conceptual framework and empirical applications. Land Use Policy, 131, 106–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106121

Nobre, C. A., Lovejoy, T. E., & Lapola, D. M. (2024). The Amazon Tipping Point: Implications for Global Climate and Biodiversity. Nature Climate Change, 14(2), 123–130. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01910-2

Pendrill, F., et al. (2022). Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation. Nature Sustainability, 5, 752–764. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00886-9

Seymour, F., et al. (2024). Complex adaptive systems and forest transitions: Theory and applications. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 49, 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012322-082456

Vijay, V., et al. (2024). The effectiveness of sustainability standards in reducing tropical deforestation. Nature Communications, 15, 1589. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-47744-0