ANALISIS FAKTOR SOSIAL DAN EKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PENGANGGURAN DI PULAU SUMATERA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31539/0n30ca58Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM), penanaman modal asing (PMA), pertumbuhan ekonomi, kemiskinan, dan ketimpangan pendapatan terhadap tingkat pengangguran di provinsi-provinsi Pulau Sumatera. Penelitian menggunakan data panel dengan pendekatan fixed effect model untuk menangkap perbedaan karakteristik struktural antarprovinsi. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa IPM, PMA, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, yang mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia, masuknya investasi asing, serta pertumbuhan ekonomi regional mampu mendorong penciptaan lapangan kerja. Sebaliknya, tingkat kemiskinan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran, mencerminkan keterbatasan akses pendidikan, keterampilan, dan peluang kerja bagi kelompok miskin. Selain itu, ketimpangan pendapatan juga terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pengangguran, yang menandakan adanya permasalahan struktural dalam distribusi kesempatan dan kualitas pekerjaan. Perbedaan nilai efek tetap antarprovinsi menunjukkan bahwa faktor struktural daerah turut memengaruhi variasi tingkat pengangguran di Pulau Sumatera. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menegaskan bahwa penurunan pengangguran memerlukan kebijakan terpadu yang tidak hanya berfokus pada pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi juga pada peningkatan kualitas pembangunan manusia, pengurangan kemiskinan, serta penurunan ketimpangan pendapatan guna menciptakan penyerapan tenaga kerja yang lebih merata dan berkelanjutan.
References
Al Ubaidillah, M. R. S., & Yasin, M. (2024). Analisis Pengangguran Dan Kebijakan Pemerintah Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi Dan Akuntansi, 2(3 Se-Articles), 34–42. Https://Doi.Org/10.54066/Jrea-Itb.V2i3.2123
Alalawneh, M., & Nessa, A. (2020). The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Unemployment : Panel Data Approach. 4(4), 228–242.
Alam, J., Alam, Q. N., & Hoque, M. (2020). Impact Of Gdp, Inflation, Population Growth And Fdi On Unemployment: A Study On Bangladesh Economy. Psn: Inflation (Topic). Https://Doi.Org/10.52589/Ajesd/Cah2iyqj
Alpaslan, B., Kayaoglu, A., Meckl, J., Naval, J., Vanore, M., & Ziesemer, T. H. W. (2021). Economic Effects Of Remittances On Migrants’ Country Of Origin Bt - The Economic Geography Of Cross-Border Migration (K. Kourtit, B. Newbold, P. Nijkamp, & M. Partridge (Eds.); Pp. 449–483). Springer International Publishing. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/978-3-030-48291-6_20
Andini, R., Sulistyo, H., Nurcholis, L., & Sulistyawati, D. R. (2025). Human Resource Development Strategy To Reduce Unemployment, Increase Welfare And Work Participation In Indonesia Bt - Data-Driven Decision Making For Sustainable Business Growth (I. Qasem (Ed.); Pp. 371–386). Springer Nature Switzerland. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/978-3-031-96530-2_34
Anjas, F., & Karo, K. (2024). Causality Analysis Between Unemployment , Poverty , And Economic Growth In The Southern Sumatra Region. 12(1), 1315–1328. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.37676/Ekombis.V12i1
Approach, A. S. E. (2025). The Effects Of Inflation And Unemployment On Multidimensional Inequality In The Iranian Provinces A Spatial Econometric Approach. Journal Of The Economic Research, 25(2), 239–268. Https://Doi.Org/10.48311/Ecor.2025.13662
Apriyanti, C., & Yanuarti, M. (2024). Analysis Of The Determinants Of Open Unemployment Rate: The Role Of Human Development Index And Socioeconomic Factors. Journal Of Economics, Management, Accounting And Computer Applications. Https://Doi.Org/10.69693/Jemaca.V1i2.13
Arismaya, A. D. (2023). Econometric: Factors Affecting Unemployment In Sumatera Province. Among Makarti. Https://Doi.Org/10.52353/Ama.V16i2.498
Arkum, D., & Amar, H. (2022). The Influence Of Economic Growth , Human Development , Poverty And Unemployment On Income Distribution Inequality. Jurnal Bina Praja, 14, 413–422. Https://Doi.Org/10.21787/ Jbp.14.2022.413-422
Emako, E., Nuru, S., & Menza, M. (2023). The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment On Capital Accumulation In Developing Countries. Development Studies Research, 10(1), 2220580. Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/21665095.2023.2220580
Faturohim, A., Akbar, A., Hidayat, B., & Saksono, H. (2023). An Analysis Of Urban Poverty And Unemployment. Jurnal Bina Praja. Https://Doi.Org/10.21787/Jbp.15.2023.309-324
Fauziana, H., Wardhana, A. K., & Rusgianto, S. (2022). The Effect Of Education , Income , Unemployment , And Poverty Toward The Gini Ratio In Member Of Oic Countries. Daengku: Journal Of Humanities And Social Sciences Innovation, 2(2).
Fitri, M. (2022). Efforts To Manage The Unemployment And Poverty Problems In Indonesia. Proceedings Of The 6th International Conference On Science, Education And Technology (Iset 2020). Https://Doi.Org/10.2991/Assehr.K.211125.083
Gugus, F. X., Putranto, F., Natalia, C., Kadek, N., & Pitriyani, D. (2024). Closing The Gap Between Education And Labor Market Requirement : Do Vocational Education Matter ? The Journal Of Indonesia Sustainable Development Planning, 5(3), 181–191. Https://Doi.Org/10.46456/Jisdep.V5i3.614
Gustriansyah, R., Alie, J., & Suhandi, N. (2023). Modeling The Number Of Unemployed In South Sumatra Province Using The Exponential Smoothing Methods. Quality & Quantity, 57(2), 1725–1737. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S11135-022-01445-2
Harahap, S. H., Rujiam, R., & Syafii, M. (2024). Pengaruh Investasi, Human Capital, Kesenjangan Sosial, Dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Kesempatan Kerja Di Pulau Sumatera. Ekonomis: Journal Of Economics And Business. Https://Doi.Org/10.33087/Ekonomis.V8i2.1504
Hasudungan, A., Gede, D., Raeskyesa, S., & Fromm, I. (2024). Discover Sustainability Analysis Of The Foreign Direct Investment , Oil Palm Expansion , And Food Security In Indonesia : Sumatra And Kalimantan Case Studies. Discover Sustainability. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S43621-024-00452-7
Ivanovski, K., Hailemariam, A., & Smyth, R. (2021). The Effect Of Renewable And Non-Renewable Energy Consumption On Economic Growth: Non-Parametric Evidence. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 286, 124956. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Jclepro.2020.124956
Joranda, Y. M. (2025). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Rata-Rata Lama Sekolah Terhadap Tingkat Penggangguran Di Kota Jambi Tahun 2014-2024. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Dan Pariwisata, 5(2), 69–83.
Jude, C., & Silaghi, M. I. P. (2016). Employment Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment: New Evidence From Central And Eastern European Countries. International Economics, 145, 32–49. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Inteco.2015.02.003
Junaidi, A., Rif’ah, N., & Indriyani, I. (2024). Theories Of Poverty. Bina Bangsa International Journal Of Business And Management, 4(3), 317–326. Https://Doi.Org/10.46306/Bbijbm.V4i3.107
Kadyraliev, A., Supaeva, G., Bakas, B., Dzholdosheva, T., Dzholdoshev, N., Balova, S., Tyurina, Y., & Krinichansky, K. (2022). Investments In Transport Infrastructure As A Factor Of Stimulation Of Economic Development. Transportation Research Procedia, 63, 1359–1369. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Trpro.2022.06.146
Kouton, J., & Amonle, S. (2021). Global Value Chains, Labor Productivity, And Inclusive Growth In Africa: Empirical Evidence From Heterogeneous Panel Methods. Journal Of Social And Economic Development, 23(1), 1–23. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S40847-020-00108-Y
La, N. M., & Ngo, Q. A. (2025). Escaping The Low-Skilled Job Trap: Evidence From Young Workers. Policy Futures In Education, 23(8), 1537–1558.
Lim, G. C., Dixon, R., & Van Ours, J. C. (2021). Beyond Okun’s Law: Output Growth And Labor Market Flows. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1387–1409. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S00181-019-01794-2
Ma, X. (2024). Dual Labor Market: The Wage Gap Between Formal And Informal Workers Bt - Labor Market Institutions In China (X. Ma (Ed.); Pp. 171–198). Springer Nature Singapore. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/978-981-97-6156-2_7
Mahroji, D., & Nurkhasanah, I. (2019). Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Di Provinsi Banten. Jurnal Ekonomi-Qu. Https://Doi.Org/10.35448/Jequ.V9i1.5436
Marliana, L. (2022). Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Pembangunan Manusia, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Dan Upah Minimum Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal Of Economics And Business. Https://Doi.Org/10.33087/Ekonomis.V6i1.490
Mishra, N., Grima, S., & Ozen, E. (2024). Unpacking The Black Box: Investigating The Role Of Social Protection Programmes In Promoting Decent Work And Economic Growth In Low‐Income Countries. Sustainable Development. Https://Doi.Org/10.1002/Sd.3008
Mitchell, R. J., & Bates, P. (2011). Measuring Health-Related Productivity Loss. Population Health Management, 14(2). Https://Doi.Org/10.1089/Pop.2010.0014
Moodie, G. (2022). Gig Qualifications For The Gig Economy : Micro-Credentials And The ‘ Hungry Mile .’ Higher Education, 1279–1295. Https://Doi.Org/10.1007/S10734-021-00742-3
Nasfi, Aimon, H., & Sentosa, S. U. (2023). Build The Village Economy : A Systematic Review On Academic Publication Of Indonesian Village-Owned Area Studies | Review Article Build The Village Economy : A Systematic Review On Academic Publication Of Indonesian. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(2). Https://Doi.Org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2252682
Ngubane, M. Z., Mndebele, S., & Kaseeram, I. (2023). Economic Growth, Unemployment And Poverty: Linear And Non-Linear Evidence From South Africa. Heliyon, 9. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Heliyon.2023.E20267
Nguyen, H. T., Le, A. N. N., Le, H. V., & Duong, K. D. (2024). Foreign Direct Investment And Employments In Asia Pacific Nations: The Moderating Role Of Labor Quality. Heliyon, 10(9), E30133. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Heliyon.2024.E30133
Nikolaos, C., & Tsaliki, P. (2021). The Dynamics Of Capital Accumulation In Marx And Solow ✩. Structural Change And Economic Dynamics, 57, 148–158. Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Strueco.2021.03.003
Nugroho, Y. E. S., & Yunisvita. (2025). The Impact Of Macroeconomic Variables On Labor Absorption In Sumatra Island. Journal Of Smart Economic Growth Www.Jseg.Ro, 10(1), 35–50.
Pal, S., & Villanthenkodath, M. A. (2024). Economic Globalization And Unemployment: Evidence From High‐, Middle‐ And Low‐Income Countries. International Social Science Journal. Https://Doi.Org/10.1111/Issj.12499
Pongge, M. I., Lawalu, E. M., & Masri, M. (2025). Foreign Investment , Human Development , And Regional Disparities In Indonesia : A Provincial Comparative Analysis. Journal Of Economics Research And Social Sciences, 9(2). Https://Doi.Org/10.18196/Jerss.V9i2.27522
Purmini, & Rambe, R. A. (2021). Labor And Government Policies On Poverty Reduction In Sumatera Island , Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 19(June), 61–74. Https://Doi.Org/10.29259/Jep.V19i1.13775
Rahman, A., Nasution, I. G. S., Sari, R. L., Lubis, I., Sirojuzilam, & Pratomo, W. A. (2024). Spatial Analysis Of Income Inequality : The Case Of Sumatra Island , Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, 58(3). Https://Doi.Org/10.17576/Jem-2024-5803-3 Spatial
Rinaldi, M., Irawan, D., & Nasution, A. R. (2022). Comparison Of Human Development Index Before And During The Covid- 19 Pandemic. Enrichment: Journal Of Management, 12(2), 2404–2408.
Rustiadi, E., Pravitasari, A. E., Priatama, R. A., Singer, J., Junaidi, J., Zulgani, Z., & Sholihah, R. I. (2023). Regional Development, Rural Transformation, And Land Use/Cover Changes In A Fast-Growing Oil Palm Region: The Case Of Jambi Province, Indonesia. Land.
Safitri, I. M., Apridar, A., & Dawood, T. C. (2024). The Impact Of Income Inequality, Human Development, Gender Development And Open Unemployment On Economic Growth In Indonesia. International Journal Of Finance, Economics And Business. Https://Doi.Org/10.56225/Ijfeb.V3i2.330
Saryani, L., & Abdelina. (2021). Poverty Factor Analysis And Economic Growth Against The Index Human Development ( Ipm ) In Padangsidimpuan City Journal Of Industrial Engineering & Management Research. Journal Of Industrial Engineering & Management Research, 2(3), 18–28. Https://Doi.Org/10.7777/Jiemar.V2i3
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif. Cv Alfabeta.
Sumaryoto, Herawati, M., & Hapsari, A. (2020). Analysis Of Changes In The Unemployment Rate As A Result Of The Human Development Index In Indonesia (Case Study 2010-2019). Cgn: Economics (Topic). Https://Doi.Org/10.31014/Aior.1992.03.04.301
Suryono, D. W., Burda, A., & Chandra, R. (2020). Does Indonesia’s Economic Growth Reduce Unemployment? 169–171. Https://Doi.Org/10.2991/Aebmr.K.200331.037
Tien, N. H., Ngoc, N. M., Ba, D., & Anh, H. (2021). Current Situation Of High Quality Human Resources In Fdi Enterprises In Vietnam-Solutions To Attract And Maintain. International Journal Of Multidisciplinary Research And Growth Evaluation, 2005, 5–12.
Triventi, M. (2013). The Role Of Higher Education Stratification In The Reproduction Of Social Inequality In The Labor Market. Research In Social Stratification And Mobility, 32, 45–63. Https://Doi.Org/Https://Doi.Org/10.1016/J.Rssm.2013.01.003
Willem, J., Pasar, I., Utara, S., Geografi, P. P., Keguruan, F., Samudra, U., Meurandeh, J., Lama, L., & Langsa, K. (2021). The Analysis Of The Impact Of Working - Age Population On Indonesian Labour. Jurnal Geografi, 13(1), 97–108. Https://Doi.Org/10.24114/Jg.V
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Nanda Muthiah Rhani, Kamil Habibi, Meidiana Azzahrah, Anna Yulianita, Sukanto Sukanto
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
